History: Twenty Years after the Berlin Wall

This year is the twentieth anniversary of the breakdown of the "Wall of Berlin". From November 1989 with the crack in the Berlin wall to December 25, 1991, when the Soviet flag was taken down in Moscow, the fall of the Soviet Union was arguably the most important historical transitions in my lifetime. I remember at the time wondering what would happen next, and now at last I can see twenty years of ripple effects with the benefit of some hindsight. So here is my own interpretation of the history.

One of the most significant symbolic gestures after 1991 was US-Russian cooperation in the space program, obviously inspired by Commander Chekov from Star Trek. Also, the US tried to help Russia rebuild as a democratic, capitalist state. However it seemed the main beneficiary of this was the Russian Mafia, as the Russian economy basically collapsed, and poor people starved while the rich lived high on the hog. Pretty much as predicted by Communist propaganda for the previous seventy years.

During the cold war, the US had countered Soviet expansion by propping up military dictators all over the world. In many countries the US vs. communism battle shaped up like this: A wealthy elite backed a military dictator, supported by US military aid, against a popular guerrilla uprising of the poor backed by (so we were told) Soviet Union communist support. In Chile and Nicaragua, (and possibly others) democratically elected governments were toppled by US-backed military coups. Whether or not those democracies were elected in a free and fair election, obviously, democracy was not an effective way to combat communism, while military dictatorships seemed to work.

The American-backed fascism was accepted in the free world world as a trade off for stopping the spread of Communism. But when the Soviet Union closed shop, it seemed like the excuses for all the military dictatorships evaporated. There was some hope that eventually, we would not be needing all the banana republic dictators. There was hope that democracy could at last prevail throughout the world.

To some extent, democracy has spread. Many of the ex-soviet states, and their satellites have developed a credible, if fragile democracies. But some of American-backed states continued their totalitarian rule, for example, Saddam Hussein. As the Soviet Union crumbled, the thinkers in the US were analysing the implications of the US being the sole remaining superpower on the planet. One of their first experiments in this unipolar world was the war to free Kuwait from Saddam's rule. I would say this war was undertaken cautiously, with much diplomacy, and with limited goals, and resulted in success. But Saddam, unfortunately remained in power, though a much reduced military threat.

In the USA, it was expected that general wealth would increase as they did not need the huge military budget to counteract the USSR. This was called the "Peace Dividend". Looking back, the Peace Dividend did not actually happen, although during the Clinton years, there was prosperity and expansion of the US economy. But simultaneously, there was a massive move under way to transfer factories away from developed nations to third world countries to take advantage of cheap labour.

Looking back on history after 20 years, I would say that the middle class did not exactly get what it hoped for. It looks like dictatorship has returned to to Russia. It also looks like the USA has strong tendencies on its own towards human rights abuses, torture, rigged elections, and military adventurism. In the absence of any other credible superpower, the USA has geared itself up for a fight to the finish against a shadowy organization that can't even be located. The US military budget has ballooned to a size greater than during the cold war. Tax cuts in the US for high income earners have produced a small super-rich class of people who call themselves "The best and the brightest". The once affluent middle class who built the suburbs and put the nation on wheels, have lost their high paying manufacturing jobs. Now we have a class of burger flippers and Wal-Mart greeters, trying to live like the middle class. Unfortunately their minimum wage jobs are simply not enough to support them in the style to which they have become accustomed. So skyrocketing personal debt has resulted, and appears to be dragging the US into a major economic contraction.

Even the expensive and non functional "Missile Defense Shield" has not been scrapped, and billions have been allocated to defend against as-yet unknown enemy missiles. Obviously, the military industrial complex is guarding itself against any loss of profits. But as the irrelevant missile defense shield becomes a threat to Russia, in turn the Russians begin not only to re-arm, but to spread nuclear technology to Iran.

I wonder if anyone but Karl Marx could have predicted the effects of the fall of the Soviet Union twenty years ago?